Ecologists are on a collision course with economists. As long as the economic systems worked when the demands of smaller economies were within the capacities of the world's ecosystems, there was no problem. Centuries are-a-changing, and things will never be the same anymore. Trends, to put it as a cliché, are more than ominous. Some projections have become banalities, but some people are not willing to learn. Forget, change.

The Malthusian population quagmire is fresh in everyone's memory. If the aggregate of 6 billion does not sound staggering enough, the projection of 8.9 billion in another 50 years should. Numbers are expanding, but ecosystems are not. The amount of freshwater produced by the hydrological cycle is the same today as it was in 1950, and what it would still be in 2050. If not any other natural resource, the per capita availability of water would be a parched indication of things to come.

There are other predictions that have become mere formalities too. The air we breathe, for instance. In 1959, when detailed and modern measurements began, the CO2 level was 316 ppm (parts per million) - some 13 per cent more than what it was 200 years back. In barely 40 years hence it had risen by another 17 per cent. Fresh air is becoming a phrase only to be relegated to dictionaries and thesauri. Doesn't sound all that bad, does it? Perhaps one needs to be told that global temperatures are likely to rise by at least 1 degree Celsius and (perhaps) as much as 4 degrees. Sea levels will rise too - from a minimum of 17 centimetres to as much as 1 metre. Ecosystems will change. Cliches are fast becoming aphorisms.

There are other trends that do not always meet the eye. That of falling water tables, for instance. Depleting aquifers are, like that of air pollution, a phenomenon of the 20^th century. In terms of consumption, the food supply of 480 million of the world's 6 billion people is being produced by unsustainable use of water. The world grain yield per hectare is not matching population growth rates either. Food from the oceans will sap up as well. Oceans cannot sustain an annual catch of more than 95 million tonnes. The world will become less green. Forested area per person will shrink from 0.56 hectares now to 0.38 hectares in another 50 years.

The need of the times, asserts Worldwatch Institute president Lester Brown, is a paradigm shift. Environmental degradation is surely to lead to an economic catastrophe. Economists perceive the lowest grain prices in 20 years as a sure sign that production capacity is outrunning effective demand. Supply, they believe, will not be a problem in the foreseeable future. What they do not see, but ecologists do, is that water tables are falling in key food-producing countries.

There are other areas where perceptions, and there attitudes, differ. Economists see a world economy that has grown by leaps and bounds over the last 50 years or so. Ecologists see that and more. All this growth is based on the burning of vast quantities of cheap fossil fuels. The paradigm shift has to be a restructuring of the economy to arrest deteriorating ecosystems.

Economies are governed by political systems - they are responsible for managing the interaction between the two. The responsibility becomes onerous given the fast that the global market economy is increasing by a trillion every year. The pressure on political institutions to check this environmental debacle is going to mount. It all depends on how political institutions are able to incorporate ecological principles into economic decisionmaking.

The exigency for a paradigm shift assumes paramount importance when thresholds are thought of. A threshold is a point that, when crossed, can bring rapid and sometimes unpredictable change. With the world population increasing by nothing less than 80 million per year, so many sustainable yield thresholds will be crossed in such a short span of time that the unmanageable consequences are inevitable.

Brown says, "The overriding challenges facing our global civilisation as the new century begins are to stabilise climate and stabilise population." These are two factors that will determine which way our world will go. The situation may be definitely alarming, but civilisation today does have the wherewithal to control these two determinants. While the living planet is has been plundered and propelled to the brink of a calamity, technological advancements have been amazing too. It is this element that will have to be fallen back upon.

To stabilise climate, the energy economy will have to be restructured first. This will need investments in climate-benign sources. Brown calls this the "greatest investment opportunity in history". Stabilising population too entails investments in reproductive health services and education of young women in developing countries. But this is a case also for changes in behavioural patterns.

Fossil fuel and carbon-based energy economies will have to give way to alternative sources of energy. Nuclear power has already failed on several fronts. Electricity has become too costly to use. The only feasible alternative is a solar/hydrogen-based economy - one that taps various sources of energy from the sun, such as hydropower, wind power, wood or direct sunlight. Changes have started taking place, but "wind and solar cells are likely to be the cornerstones of the new energy economy".

As Brown, in his introductory chapter on "Challenges of the new Century", concludes, "There is no middle path. The challenge is either to build an economy that is sustainable or to stay with our unsustainable economy until it declines. It is not a goal that can be compromised. One way or another, the choice will be made by our generation, but it will affect life on Earth for all generations to come."

Ecologists have been crying hoarse for some time now. The Worldwatch Institute, for its part, has been bringing out its "State of the World" reports every year, cautioning world leaders with their clear, concise publications. Either they (the leaders) do not listen, or when they do, they do not act. As long as political leaders stay driven by economic compulsions rather than environmental considerations, a State of the World 3000 will never be published - there will be a dead planet by then.

 
What Amazon.com says:

The newest volume in the annual series that has become the bible of the global environmental movement--and indispensable for anyone concerned with the future of our world. State of the World 2000 provides national leaders and concerned citizens with a comprehensive framework for the global debate about our future in the new century. This annual survey by the award-winning Worldwatch Institute has become an invaluable analysis of negative environmental trends and a guide to emerging solutions. The book shows how our current fossil-fuelled, auto-centred, throwaway economy is steadily destroying the very ecosystems that form the foundations of our lives. The great challenge we face in the next century is making the transition to a sustainable economy that reuses and recycles materials, is powered by renewable energy sources, and has a stable population. The authors argue that meeting this challenge will offer some of the greatest investment opportunities in history. Written in clear and concise language, with easy-to-read charts and tables, State of the World 2000 presents a view of our changing world that we, and our leaders, cannot afford to ignore. © Amazon.com