Certain annual publications remain something to be on the lookout for. Worldwatch Institute's "Vital Signs" is one such. For the uninitiated, the eighth edition in the series tells readers, this time again, in a nutshell what is happening around the world; how good or bad things essentially are. It presents a kaleidoscopic view of a fast-evolving, dynamic world, packed with user-friendly charts and tables.
As in the previous editions, "Vital Signs 1999" encourages readers to compare related trends rather than reviewing contents indicator-by-indicator. It permits a substantial number of comparisons across several indicators. Those interested in the role of corporations, for instance, may also want to consult the indicators on advertising expenditures and unemployment. Others may want to juxtapose the pieces on corporations and nongovernmental organisations (NGOs).
The data on pesticides may be looked at in conjunction with the information on genetically-modified crops, since one aim of genetic manipulation is to create insect-resistant varieties, thus reducing the use of insecticides that may be lowering sperm counts. Information contained in the indicator on warfare will be useful in conjunction with the pieces on refugee populations and peacekeeping efforts.
The past year had been an off-the-chart year for Worldwatch. In 1998, the Earth's average temperature literally went off the chart that the institute had been using for years, says the environmental communications organisation's director and one of the authors, Lester R. Brown. The year was the hottest since record keeping began way back in 1860s. The average temperature of the atmosphere at the Earth's surface jumped dramatically to a new high of 14.57 degrees Celsius in 1998. The increase of 0.17 degrees was unusually large, particularly given the fact that it followed a new record set the previous year.
This record temperature, leading to more evaporation and rainfall and powering more destructive storms, may have helped push other indicators off the chart as well. Weather-related damage worldwide totaled $92 billion in 1998, up a staggering 53 per cent from the previous $60 billion in 1996, and the inflation-adjusted weather related damages during the entire decade of the 1980s. This huge jump not only went off the top off the chart, it went off the page as well.
In comparison to the 1960s, during the 1990s the number of natural catastrophes trebled, while economic costs increased ninefold and insured costs 15-fold. The human toll of these weather-related disasters was severe. At least 41,000 lives were lost in storms, heat waves, fires, floods, and drought. Storms and floods drove an astounding 300 million or more people from their homes in 1998, more people than the population of the United States (US), notes the study funded by the W. Alton Jones Foundation and the UN Population Fund. Many of those forced from their homes lived in China's Yangtze river valley and in Bangladesh.
Climate simulation models suggest that the events of 1998 could be a window on the future, a consequence of failing to rein in carbon emissions soon enough. While the rise in the Earth's temperature was accelerating, the growth of the global economy has been decelerating. Economic turmoil in East Africa, Russia and Brazil slowed economic growth from 4.2 per cent in 1997 to 2.2 per cent in 1998, the slowest in seven years. Closely associated with the economic turmoil was a 4 per cent drop in international trade in 1998, the first decline in 15 years.
Insects, plant diseases and weeds continue to dodge farmers' best efforts to kill them by evolving resistance to pesticides. Today, nearly 1,000 major agricultural pests -including some 500 insects and mite species, 230 plant diseases, and 220 weeds- are immune to pesticides, a development almost unheard of mid-century. As modern agriculture leans heavily on pesticides, spreading resistance threatens to increase pest-induced crop losses and weaken food security.
In 1998, the world population increased by 78 million, roughly the equivalent of another Germany. In its biannual update of population numbers and projections released in late 1998, UN demographers reduced the projected population for 2050 by some 500 million. Roughly two-thirds of this decline was due to falling fertility, but unfortunately one-third was due to rising mortality, largely the result of the HIV epidemic, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.
Another sign of deteriorating human health is a fall in sperm counts. Among men in the US, average sperm counts per millilitre of semen have dropped from 120 million in 1940 to just under 50 million in 1998. Counts in European countries indicate a similar decline. The principal explanation for this is the so-called endocrine disruption hypothesis, namely that chemicals in the environment act as "environmental oestrogens." These imitators of this basic female hormone - found in plastics, pesticides, and industrial pollutants - may adversely affect male reproductive functioning, among other things.
The increase in armed conflict was another source of turmoil in 1998. After five annual declines, the number of wars in the world climbed from 25 to 31 in 1998. Nearly all were internal or civil wars in the developing world, except for Serbia's Kosovo province.
Driven partly by concerns about climate change and partly by depletion of fossil fuel resources, the world energy economy is undergoing massive reconstruction., shifting from historically heavy reliance on oil and coal to renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar cells.
While wind use was expanding at 22 per cent a year from 1990 to 1998, and solar at 16 per cent per year, the use of oil was growing at less than 2 per cent, and that of coal was not increasing at all. Glimpses of the new emerging energy economy can be seen in the solar cells rooftops of Japan and Germany and in the wind farms of Denmark, India, Spain and some states in the US.
The foundation is being laid for the emergence of wind and solar cells as cornerstones of the new energy economy. The growth in world wind energy generating capacity from 7,600 MW in 1997 to 9,600 MW in 1998 was concentrated in a handful of countries. Within the developing world, India is the unquestioned leader with more than 900 MW of generating capacity in operation. In 1998, sales of solar cells jumped 21 per cent. Growth is being fuelled by a new photovoltaic roofing material that generates electricity. In Japan nearly 7,000 rooftop solar systems were installed in 1998.
On the food front, world grain prices in late 1998 dropped to the lowest level in two decades, partly because of the economic downturn in several East Asian countries, but more fundamentally because of extensive overpumping for irrigation in China and India, with 1.12 billion and 1 billion people approximately. In effect, both countries are expanding food production in the short run depleting their aquifers, which means they will face sharp cutbacks in irrigation water supplies once the aquifers are depleted.
Over the last year, the number of phones and the number of Internet connections increased dramatically, integrating more and more people into the global electronic network. This growing linkage was facilitated by the launching of 140 satellites in 1998, most of them commercial communication satellites. Satellite launches, once dominated by government military satellites, have now been eclipsed by the launching of private communication satellites.
For telephones, the number in the global phone network increased from 741 million in 1996 to 781 million in 1997, a gain of 40 million. Cellular phone sales, which jumped from 144 million in 1996 to 214 million in 1997, increased by 60 million, marking the first time that sales of cellular phones topped those of traditional phones. Stated otherwise, nearly two-thirds of the worldwide growth in new telephones is in those linked by radio waves rather than those linked by traditional phone lines.
The number of lines linking host computers to the Internet increased to 43 million in 1998, up from 30 million the year before. This growth of 43 per cent means that 147 million people worldwide now have access to the Internet. The US, with 76 million individuals linked to the Internet, accounted for half the world total. Some of the most explosive growth is coming in China, where the number of users doubled up in 1998, reaching 1.6 million. One projection shows the number of Internet users in China exceeding the number of automobile owners by 2002.
The world production of cars fell 2 per cent as the economy faltered. While Europe expanded output by 6 per cent and North America declined by 1 per cent, the biggest drops came in Asia at 11 per cent and Latin America at 17 per cent. Despite this, world sales exceeded the number of vehicles scrapped, expanding the global fleet from 498 million vehicles to 508 million.
Bicycle production, on the other hand, dropped from 99 million in 1996 to 94 million in 1997. The big drop came in China, where output declined by 20 per cent as a result of a build-up of excess capacity and excessive inventories. Air travel, however, increased by 2 per cent in 1998. Now accounting for nearly 5 per cent of world oil consumption, future growth in air travel in projected to be rapid.
Cigarette production per person fell by 2 per cent in 1998, continuing a decade-long trend. After peaking in 1990, cigarette production per person worldwide has dropped almost 8 per cent. This follows a US trend where cigarettes smoked per person have dropped 41 per cent since 1981.
Spending on advertisements, however, climbed. About $413 billion -more than 1 per cent of the global economic output- was spent on advertising in 1998. On an average, $70 worth of advertisements appeared per person in 1998, almost four times the figure for 1950. India and China each expanded their ad budgets by 12 per cent in 1998.
