Fact No I: Journalists, by virtue of their job, are a powerful lot. They can give any twist to any story. Fact No II: The issue of Muslims/Islam is so dynamic that you can either project Muslims as a bloodthirsty breed or portray them as hapless victims of an Islamophobic dispensation. Take the two facts together, and you will know what I am driving at.
There have been a number of studies about Islamophobia and the media that have found their way into the public domain. Some are accurate, others not. Many are not not based on any data, and are mere opinions of the authors. The coverage about the just launched The Future of the Global Muslim Population report by the by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life is a classic case of what journalists do with numbers and Muslims.
The report says that the world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 per cent in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030. Over the next two decades, the worldwide Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population – an average annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent for Muslims compared with 0.7 per cent for non-Muslims. It is this aspect that have been screaming through the headlines in most media reports.
What the Pew study also said in, almost, the same breath is that the growth rate of Muslims is actually slowing down. It said:
However, while the global Muslim population is predicted to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population, it is also expected to grow at a slower pace (emphasis NOT mine) in the next 20 years than it did in the previous two decades. From 1990 to 2010, the global Muslim population increased at an average annual rate of 2.2%; for the period from 2010 to 2030, the rate of growth is projected to be 1.5%.
This angle has been missing from the stories that most news establishments put out. The fact that the global Muslim population will grow faster than others was blown up, but the fact that the growth rate itself will be half of what it was earlier was either conspicuously absent in the reports or was significantly downplayed. Reading the stories seemed like bad news all around. The positive aspect remained confined to the press release issued by Pew.
Most news establishments seemed to have culled out the information to suit their ends from the press release itself, and given the full report a go-by. In fact, even the Executive summary of the study had a substantial chunk on the decline in growth rate.
The report said:
The growth of the global Muslim population, however, should not obscure another important demographic trend: the rate of growth among Muslims has been slowing in recent decades and is likely to continue to decline over the next 20 years, as the graph below shows. From 1990 to 2000, the Muslim population grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%. The growth rate dipped to 2.1% from 2000 to 2010, and it is projected to drop to 1.7% from 2010 to 2020 and 1.4% from 2020 to 2030 (or 1.5% annually over the 20-year period from 2010 to 2030, as previously noted).
The declining growth rate is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries, including such populous nations as Indonesia and Bangladesh. Fertility is dropping as more women in these countries obtain a secondary education, living standards rise and people move from rural areas to cities and towns.
That's right. The fertility rates are dropping because of literacy rates among women and better living conditions. So, Muslims are not exact breeding like rats and dogs, you know. As a matter of fact, the only region where Muslim population growth is accelerating through 2020 is the Americas. And that's largely because of immigration, and not reproduction. Islamophobes and jihadwatchers never get their numbers right.
Just look at the scary headlines:
- Study: Muslims to Make Up Fourth of World's Population by 2030; Voice of America; no mention of slower growth rate
- Muslim population growth to outpace non-Muslims: Study; The Indian Express; slower rate mentioned in 11th para
- Here's one story the Right-wing media didn't make up: in 2030 Britain will be 8.2 per cent Muslim; The Telegraph (UK); no mention of slower growth rate
- Number of U.S. Muslims will more than double to 6.2m in 20 years; Daily Mail; no mention of slower growth rate
- Global Muslim population to surge, says a Study; NDTV.com; no mention of slower growth rate
- Pew Study: 1-in-4 People in the World Will be Muslim by 2030; Fox News; no mention of slower growth rate
These were just a few examples. The point was not to count how many news outlets were into scare-mongering. But you get the drift.
The only major news establishments to get it right were Reuters and the New York Times. Both made the point in their headlines: Muslim birth rate falls, slower population growth (Reuters) and Forecast Sees Muslim Population Leveling Off (NYT).
There we are.
