Bangalore South is one of those few constituencies in the country the bulk of whose electorate is the target group of all the three major political formations. It is reckoned to be a prestigious constituency, and in terms of ethnicities is as demographically fragmented as any other in the country. And now it's become the cynosure of all eyes, with talk of former Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani being the possible Congress candidate for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Even though Nilekani is long away from being announced as the official Congress nominee, speculation is rife whether the technocrat will indeed be able to pull off the carpet from under the feet of Ananth Kumar, who has been elected to Parliament five times in a row on a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP ticket).
But, it is not the ethnicities that has become the talk of the town now — it is the lifestyle profile of the average voter here. Bangalore South is extremely urban and sophisticated, filled with IT professionals; every fifth voter here hasn't cast his or her first ballot yet; the electorate here is said to be politically aware and carries firm political convictions.
BJP's own prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has a considerable fan following in Bangalore South, comprising eight Assembly fragments. The constituency's young and urbane voter is also the prime target target of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). And now, there is Nandan Nilekani, whose IT background may hold considerable sway in the area.
There is reason for observers to believe that Nilekani could manage to pull it off. Ananth Kumar has lost considerable electoral ground in the last two elections of 2004 and 2009 — he won by a mere 4.1 per cent (36,612 votes) in 2009 compared to the whopping 22.2 per cent (180,047 votes) margin he secured in 1998. It is a constituency that has elected a Congress candidate only once in the last ten Lok Sabha polls — R Gundu Rao in 1989.
Historically speaking, this might not be a "safe" enough constituency for Nandan Nilekani to make his political debut from. Yet, it has the best demographic mix that the Congress would want to go fishing for voters for the chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI).
The caste factor is a factor that often tilts scales here. One reason why Ananth Kumar kept winning was because of the Brahmin votebank that stood by him. But with Nilekani, a Gowda Saraswat Brahmin from the coastal region, possibly in the fray, Ananth Kumar might want to rethink his political strategy. And it may not be easy for him to outwit a man whose very business is to understand demographic breakups.
But speculations are one thing, and the hustings quite another.
